• 2018-2019 China Thermal Coal Market Analysis and Forecast

  • Cycle of publication: Annual

    Date of completion: Dec, 2018

TOTAL: 20000

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SUMMARY

Amid stable development of China's macro-economy, thermal coal consumption rises slightly amid stability in 2018. On supply side, de-capacity continues forging ahead, successfully completing the annual target. However, the growth rate of capacity release is slower than expected, leading domestic supply-demand in a tight balance. The policies are executed highlighting safety and environmental protection, restricting coal imports and promoting the shift to railways from roadway. Consequently, thermal coal prices continue operating high.

Fenwei Energy is timely releasing "2018-2019 China Thermal Coal Market Analysis and Forecast", to review and forecast important policies affecting coal industry development and market operation, and also provide forecast in 2019 centering on macro and industrial environment, demand, supply, price, logistics, import & export, etc.

INTRODUCTION

1.  China Macro Economy Review and Outlook

     1.1  China macro economy review and outlook

            1.1.1  2018 China macro economy improving amid stability (economic indicators developing trend analysis, such as GDP, FAI, IVA, PMI…)

            1.1.2  2019 macro economy outlook

     1.2  Changes of energy consumption mix in China

2.  2018 Coal Industry Policy Summary and 2019 Developing Trend Outlook

     2.1  Policies of de-capacity and capacity release

            2.1.1  Policy summary and interpretation (objectives, replacement criterion, de-capacity progress, etc.)

            2.1.2  2018 de-capacity and capacity release by province

            2.1.3  2019 de-capacity and capacity release forecast

                  — 2019 de-capacity targets and execution forecast

                  — 2019 capacity release forecast

     2.2  Safety and environmental policies

            2.2.1  Policy summary and interpretation

                  — Policies issued by the central government

                  — Policies in main thermal coal producing provinces

            2.2.2  2018 policy impact analysis

                  — Producing areas: open coal yard and equipment renovation, over-capacity production and safety examinations, the restriction from coal inspection ticket, etc.

                  — Logistics and transfer ports: truck overload control, roadway transferring to railway for port inflow and outflow, load limit at Qinhuangdao Port, passage control on some routes, etc.

                  — Consuming areas: containers delivered to plants, transport restriction during major conferences, etc.

            2.2.3  2019 safety and environmental policies developing trend forecast

                  — 2019 safety supervision not to ease amid frequent occurrence of mine accidents (positive YoY rise) in 2018

                  — 2019 projected to be the key year in executing the Three Year Action Plan to Protect the Blue Sky and realizing the target set for 2020

                  — Supervisions on Fenwei Plains and air pollution treatment schemes in autumn and winter continuing being implemented

     2.3  Policy-based price regulation and coal import restriction policies

            2.3.1  2018 regulation policy and events review

                  — Coal supply assurance, price cap measures introduced by the government and big coal groups adjusting prices

                  — Coal import policies review

            2.3.2  2019 price regulation and import coal policy developing trend forecast

3.  2018 China Thermal Coal Demand Analysis and 2019 Forecast

     3.1  2018 China total thermal coal consumption analysis

     3.2  2018-2019 power sector operation and corresponding thermal coal consumption analysis and forecast

            3.2.1  2018 power installed capacity structure, power generation hours, power generation volume and coal consumption analysis

                  — 2018 electricity consumption of the entire society seeing a remarkable growth (industrial recovery, electricity replacement, hot weather in summer, etc.)

                  — 2018 thermal power generation growth hitting a fresh high since 2012, resulting in a rising thermal coal consumption

                  — 2018 power market key events analysis (cutting power price, market-oriented transaction, ultra-high voltage power transmission, etc.)

                  — Power generation by non-fossil energy like hydro, wind power, etc.

            3.2.2  2019 power installed capacity, power generation hours, power generation volume and coal consumption forecast

     3.3  2018-2019 steel industry operation and corresponding thermal coal consumption analysis and forecast

            3.3.1  2018 pig iron/crude steel output and thermal coal consumption in PCI and sintering

                  — 2018 crude steel output growing remarkably, steel consumption included in NBS’ statistics as the main reason

                  — 2018 steel de-capacity continuing forging ahead, iron/steel ratio reducing and sintering still being restricted for environmental concerns

                  — PCI ratio keeping stable, economy as the main consideration

            3.3.2  2019 pig iron/crude steel production and thermal coal consumption forecast in PCI and sintering

     3.4  2018-2019 building materials operation and corresponding thermal coal consumption analysis and forecast

            3.4.1  2018 cement/clinker output and thermal coal consumption analysis

                  — Cement production growth turning positive in 2H2018 (FAI/real estate investment growth stabilizing)

                  — Impact analysis on cement production from environmental protection

            3.4.2  2019 cement/clinker production and thermal coal consumption forecast

     3.5  2018-2019 coal chemical operation and corresponding thermal coal consumption analysis and forecast

            3.5.1  2018 methanol/synthetic ammonia, CTL/CTG output and thermal coal consumption analysis

                  — 2018 coal chemical downstream market analysis and output developing trend

            3.5.2  2019 methanol/synthetic ammonia, CTL/CTG output and thermal coal consumption forecast

                  — 2019 coal chemical downstream market outlook

                  — Operating, under-construction and under-planning modern coal chemical projects

     3.6  2018-2019 thermal coal consumption analysis and forecast in heating supply and other industries

            3.6.1  Heating supply

            3.6.2  In other industries

     3.7  Impact analysis and forecast on thermal coal consumption from environmental protection and air pollution prevention & control in autumn and winter

            3.7.1  Scale of coal-to-electricity and coal-to-gas transformation and impact on thermal coal consumption

            3.7.2  Impact on thermal coal consumption from industrial production cuts in autumn and winter

     3.8  2019 China total thermal coal consumption forecast

4.  2018 China Thermal Coal Supply Analysis and 2019 Forecast

     4.1  Capacity analysis and forecast

            4.1.1  Thermal coal capacity in China and by province

            4.1.2  Effective thermal coal capacity composition (operating/trial-run/approved under-construction/unapproved under-construction mines)

            4.1.3  Newly-added thermal coal capacity forecast

     4.2  Supply analysis and forecast

            4.2.1  Thermal coal supply in China and by province

            4.2.2  Newly-added thermal coal output forecast

     4.3  Coal stock development trend analysis and forecast

            4.3.1  At producing areas (stocks maintaining low and extracting based on orders)

            4.3.2  At transfer ports (port outflow policy, hoarding by traders, load limit at Qinhuangdao Port and maintenance of Daqing Railway, etc.)

            4.3.3  At key power utilities and six coastal power groups (stocks at power plants and new change of consuming rhythm)

5.  2018 China Thermal Coal Import & Export Analysis and 2019 Forecast

     5.1  Thermal coal imports

            5.1.1  2018 thermal coal imports

                  — By coal type

                  — By origin

                  — By importing province

                  — By key importer & trader

            5.1.2  2019 thermal coal import forecast

     5.2  Thermal coal exports

            5.2.1  2018-2019 total exports analysis and forecast

            5.2.2  By destination (South Korea/Japan/China Taiwan)

6.  2018 China Thermal Coal Transport Analysis and 2019 Forecast

     6.1  2018 coal transport volume

        — Roadway volume

        — Total railing volume and volumes of Daqin Railway/Shuohuang Railway...

        — Shipment volume of Bohai Rim Ports

     6.2  2019 roadway/railway under-construction and expanding projects

     6.3  2018 transport freight analysis and 2019 forecast

        — Roadway freight (short/medium/long-distance freight and freights of some typical routes)

        — Railway freight (benchmark freight rate/float rules)

        — Waterway freight (ocean/waterborne freight)

7.  2018 China Thermal Coal Price Review and 2019 Forecast

     7.1  2018 thermal coal supply-demand balance analysis and 2019 forecast

     7.2  Thermal coal price analysis and forecast

     7.3  2018 thermal coal price trend analysis

        — Pit-head price

        — Price at transfer ports (spot/long-term contract price)

        — Price at consuming places

     7.4  2019 thermal coal price trend forecast

            7.4.1  Price influencing factor analysis-policies, supply & demand, costs, logistics, important events, etc.

            7.4.2  Monthly thermal coal price forecast (monthly average price forecast of Q5500 FOB Qinhuangdao)

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